It's worth mentioning that electoral politics in Wisconsin and North Carolina are heavily influenced by the actions of particular billionaires; namely Diane Hendricks in WI, and Arthur Pope in NC. They've packed significant money into improving the GOP "lean" of those states, and of course both are in the tank for Trump.
Sadly, yes. I was raised by a very wealthy conservative Reagan republican family. Ironically, they didn't give 2 shits about social issues. My parents were snorting coke, doing ex, and having hot tub orgies in the 80's. I remember the "boz scaggs" playing in the background when I was trying to fall asleep. Its all about the $$ with these boomers. tax cuts
The Wisconsin rating is off. It ignores the sharp turn left in voting there since 2020, the de-gerrymandering done by the state Supreme Court (which in turn is likely to boost turnout because races will be competitive) and the backlash there overall against Republicans. Polling there seems to be wildly off the mark. RFK Jr. Is not getting 10% of the vote anywhere. Ballot splitting between liberal lesbian Senator Tammy Baldwin and the wildly homophobic GOP's Donald Trump? It's so laughable. Not buying it.
Regarding what you said at the end, ticket splitting is very much a thing, and most people don't even know about Baldwin's personal life. It wouldn't take more than a handful of ticket splitters (about 1 in 100 voters, roughly) for Baldwin to win re-election by a point while Biden loses the state by something like 0.2%. That's not my prediction, and I do think Biden is looking better in Wisconsin than in most other swing states, but it's still possible.
One dangerous assumption that folks like us make is that voters are attuned to and knowledgeable about politics. But they're generally not, and their voting habits (like ticket-splitting) reflect that.
Gerrymandering doesn’t affect a federal Presidential election. Popular vote of the state determines the winner.
2020 was a rare ultra high turnout election. Biden won by a tiny margin. There wasn’t a sharp turn left. They reelected a Republican senator.
3 independents with two being far left will hurt Biden. It comes down to how many Trump voters Kennedy takes away but he is taking both Biden and Trump voters.
I think you're right, Thad, that the newly competitive legislative districts could have an impact on the presidential race in Wisconsin. I wouldn't expect it to have more than a modest effect, but it's one of those things that could only help Biden.
By the way, your point from a few weeks ago about my rating being too pessimistic for Wisconsin is looking like a good take. The latest polling in WI is pretty positive for Biden.
Great article. Philly vs Wilkes-Barre, Scranton area really surprised me!
It's worth mentioning that electoral politics in Wisconsin and North Carolina are heavily influenced by the actions of particular billionaires; namely Diane Hendricks in WI, and Arthur Pope in NC. They've packed significant money into improving the GOP "lean" of those states, and of course both are in the tank for Trump.
Yawn
Sadly, yes. I was raised by a very wealthy conservative Reagan republican family. Ironically, they didn't give 2 shits about social issues. My parents were snorting coke, doing ex, and having hot tub orgies in the 80's. I remember the "boz scaggs" playing in the background when I was trying to fall asleep. Its all about the $$ with these boomers. tax cuts
The Wisconsin rating is off. It ignores the sharp turn left in voting there since 2020, the de-gerrymandering done by the state Supreme Court (which in turn is likely to boost turnout because races will be competitive) and the backlash there overall against Republicans. Polling there seems to be wildly off the mark. RFK Jr. Is not getting 10% of the vote anywhere. Ballot splitting between liberal lesbian Senator Tammy Baldwin and the wildly homophobic GOP's Donald Trump? It's so laughable. Not buying it.
Regarding what you said at the end, ticket splitting is very much a thing, and most people don't even know about Baldwin's personal life. It wouldn't take more than a handful of ticket splitters (about 1 in 100 voters, roughly) for Baldwin to win re-election by a point while Biden loses the state by something like 0.2%. That's not my prediction, and I do think Biden is looking better in Wisconsin than in most other swing states, but it's still possible.
One dangerous assumption that folks like us make is that voters are attuned to and knowledgeable about politics. But they're generally not, and their voting habits (like ticket-splitting) reflect that.
Gerrymandering doesn’t affect a federal Presidential election. Popular vote of the state determines the winner.
2020 was a rare ultra high turnout election. Biden won by a tiny margin. There wasn’t a sharp turn left. They reelected a Republican senator.
3 independents with two being far left will hurt Biden. It comes down to how many Trump voters Kennedy takes away but he is taking both Biden and Trump voters.
Gerrymandered districts depress turnout. That absolutely affects presidential elections.
Invisible lines lower turnout?
I think you're right, Thad, that the newly competitive legislative districts could have an impact on the presidential race in Wisconsin. I wouldn't expect it to have more than a modest effect, but it's one of those things that could only help Biden.
By the way, your point from a few weeks ago about my rating being too pessimistic for Wisconsin is looking like a good take. The latest polling in WI is pretty positive for Biden.
Moving shapeshifter targets are hard to hit. Please keep a scorecard so you can adjust your aim as this election progresses.
Trump is winning Michigan and Arizona as well in 90% of the polls.
Yes, I shifted Arizona's rating in my most recent article from a few days ago, and might end up doing the same for Michigan in the near future.
Abortion is on the ballot in AZ. Hard to say how that will affect D turnout. Polls won’t be accurate until the final week of October.