I get the sense that among the core swing states, Nevada is a bit misunderstood. Or, at least, it’s often overlooked. With only six electoral votes, Nevada wouldn’t seem at first glance to be as important as Pennsylvania (19 EVs), Georgia (16), or even Wisconsin (10). But given how close the 2024 election might be, it’s an important state for both parties to target, and I assume that most folks would at least contend that Nevada is close to a toss-up going into the fall.
But, I’d go even further. Given its demographics, I think it’s a prime state for Trump to flip, which would be truly significant if that came to pass. Ever since Obama won Nevada by dougle digits in 2008, the state has been blue in every presidential election, and seen as a reliable part of the Democratic coalition. Most recently, in 2016 and 2020, Clinton and Biden both won Nevada by nearly the same margin, about 2.4 points.
Nevada’s political geography is unlike that of nearly any other state, so it’s worth taking a quick look at a map. The state has just 17 counties, and Democrats typically only win two of them. Clark and Washoe County, both shaded in blue below, are where nearly all of the state’s population live.
Clark County, at the southern tip of the state, is home to Las Vegas, and casts about 70% of the statewide vote. It’s not as Democratic as some might assume, and Biden only won the county by about 9 points. In the northwest, Washoe County, home to Reno, casts about 18% of Nevada’s vote, and is purple to light blue. Clinton won Washoe in 2016 by a point, while Biden managed to win it by 4 points in 2020. The rest of the state is deeply Republican, though it only accounts for a fraction of the total vote.
So, what makes Nevada a good target for Trump? Notably, it has by far the lowest educational attainment of the battleground states; the Census Bureau estimated that in 2022, just 27% of adults in Nevada had at least a college degree. That’s quite a bit lower than the national average of roughly 36%. All of the other battleground states are either close to that figure, or at least somewhat over 30%.
Since 2016, one of the best predictors of a state’s political movement has been its educational attainment. Areas with a lower percentage of adults with college degrees have trended Republican, while the reverse has been true of highly-educated regions. The political realignment that came with Trump’s entry into politics has proved enduring, and the link between education and voting behavior has only become stronger with time.
Over the last two presidential elections, Nevada has reflected this realignment based on education: in 2016, the state shifted about 4 points to the right compared to 2012, even as the country as a whole only shifted by about 2 points. Then, in 2020, Biden won Nevada by almost exactly the same margin that Clinton had, even though the US as a whole shifted 2.5 points to the left from 2016. In short, Nevada has clearly been moving to the right of the national popular vote, though it has remained in the Democratic column.
This fall, Biden seems poised to perform worse in the popular vote than he did in 2020, when he won by about 4.5 points. Nevada will very likely reflect any shift in the popular vote, and quite possibly, it could move even further to the right than the US as a whole does. For example, if Biden were to win the popular vote this fall by exactly 2 points, Nevada would very likely flip red from that alone, even without assuming that it continues becoming redder in relative terms.
Trump’s potential gains in the state would come from a combination of working-class whites and Hispanics shifting to the right, which polling suggests is a real possibility. Both Nevada itself and Clark County are roughly 30% Hispanic. If Hispanics continue moving towards the GOP, which was one of the most notable electoral trends from 2016 to 2020, then Biden might find himself winning Clark County by only 6 to 8 points. Even such a modest drop from his 9-point win there four years ago could quickly erase his winning statewide margin from 2020, given how much of the vote comes from Clark.
Fundamentally, Nevada is a working-class state, with a smaller suburban population than any other battleground state. Biden may very well hold onto his gains with college-educated voters this fall, but that will help him little in Nevada, whose electorate is diverse, but mostly compromised of groups that have become less Democratic over the last several years.
If Trump were to flip Nevada in tandem with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that would bring him right to 270 in the Electoral College. This would arguably be his easiest path to the presidency, and one that’s only possible with Nevada’s 6 electoral votes.
Thanks Brad - really interesting article, what would be interesting (if that information was available) would be the number of new voters that have registered in Nevada since the last election in 2020. I imagine a large percentage of those are Hispanic and that shift right would be exacerbated.